The following is an unedited transcript of the news release from the Office for National Statistics.


The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services is provisionally estimated to have narrowed in March to £4.0 billion from a deficit of £4.3 billion in February.

In the first quarter, the deficit on trade in goods and services widened to £13.4 billion, from a £13.1 billion deficit in the previous quarter.

The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the UK trade deficit is fairly flat in recent months. The notes discuss a number of factors which mean that the initial estimates of the data are less reliable than previously, and which make interpretation of short term movements difficult.

TRADE IN GOODS – MARCH

Value of total trade in goods

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods in March is provisionally estimated at £7.4 billion, compared with £7.6 billion in February. The deficit with EU countries in March was £3.7 billion, compared with £3.5 billion in February. The deficit with non-EU countries in March was £3.8 billion, compared with £4.1 billion in February.In March, total exports of goods rose by a half per cent to £20.1 billion while total imports of goods fell by a half per cent to £27.6
billion. Exports to EU countries rose a half per cent and exports to non-EU countries were virtually unchanged. Imports from EU countries rose one and a half per cent while imports from non-EU countries fell by two and a half per cent.

In the first quarter, the deficit on trade in goods narrowed by £0.3 billion to £22.9 billion. The deficit with EU countries widened by £0.5 billion to £10.8 billion, and the deficit with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.7 billion to £12.1 billion.

In the first quarter, exports of goods rose by four and a half per cent and imports of goods rose by three per cent. Exports to EU countries rose by three and a half per cent and exports to non-EU countries rose by six and a half per cent. Imports from EU countries rose by three and a half per cent and those from non- EU countries rose by two and a half per cent. The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the whole world goods deficit is fairly flat. The trends in the value of trade show both exports and imports rising slightly in recent months.

Volume of total trade in goods (excluding oil and erratics)

Provisional estimates show that the volume of exports fell by one per cent while the volume of imports was virtually unchanged from that in February. In the first quarter, exports rose one and a half per cent while imports fell one per cent compared with the previous quarter. Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution. Latest estimates of volume trends show both exports and imports fairly flat in recent months.

Export and import prices (trade in goods)

March’s provisional estimates show that export prices rose two and a half per cent and import prices rose two per cent compared with February. In the first quarter, export prices rose five and a half per cent and import prices rose five per cent. This led to an increase in terms of trade.

COMMODITY ANALYSIS OF TRADE IN GOODS

Trade in oil

In March, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £0.4 billion,compared with a deficit of £0.1 billion in February.In the first quarter, the deficit on trade in oil was £1.0 billion,compared with a deficit of £1.3 billion in the previous quarter.

Trade in other commodities in first quarter 2008

For exports, all the main commodity groups showed a fall in volume, except food, drink and tobacco, and semi manufactures. Within finished manufactures, exports of cars rose by five per cent. Exports of consumer goods other than cars fell by seven and a half per cent. Exports of chemicals rose by seven and a halfper cent, and exports of other semi-manufactured goods rose by two per cent.

For imports, all the main commodity groups showed a rise in volume, except fuels and finished manufactures. Within finished manufactures, imports of capital goods fell by three and a half per cent. Imports of intermediate goods fell by three per cent, and of consumer goods other than cars fell by two and a half per cent. Imports of cars rose by seven per cent. Imports of chemicals fell a half per cent and imports of other semi-manufactured goods fell
one per cent.